Sept 2, 2019 - 6:30 pm Update
Dorian remains a powerful hurricane, pounding the island of Grand Bahama with 125kt winds. As of the 5pm Monday update from the National Hurricane Center, Dorian has maximum sustained winds of 125kts and has basically stalled. Although this system has started to weaken, steering currents have collapsed and Dorian continues the assault on the Bahamas. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous update, keeping Dorian dangerously close but offshore of Florida. Note that the Florida coast is still well within the margin of error and landfall remains clearly on the table of possible outcomes.
Next up is the Southeast US and Dorian is expected to parallel the coast over the second half of the week — again dangerously close and a landfall in the Southeast is also a possibility. Nobody that lives along the Florida or Southeast US coast should let their guard down.
Dorian will send surf to the East Coast for many locations, so there will be waves for many as we head through the first week of September. All things considered though, Dorian has been exactly what we don’t want to see this time of year — a potentially devastating storm with wide-reaching impacts. However if we keep up this trend of Dorian tracking offshore, the US may be able to dodge a bullet – or a bomb.
Major Hurricane Dorian Specs as of 5PM EDT on September 2nd
- Summary: Dorian has stalled just north of Grand Bahama as a Category 4 Major Hurricane. The National Hurricane Center continues to forecast Dorian tracking just offshore of the Florida and Southeast US coast, but a landfall is definitely not off the table.
- Strength: Maximum sustained wind of 125 knots.
- Location/Movement: About 105 miles E of West Palm Beach, Florida. Nearly stationary.
- Watches/Warnings/Threats: Various watches/warning are in effect for the Bahamas, Florida and as far north as South Carolina. You can check specific watches/warning here.
The Bad
- Devastating impacts have already occurred in the Bahamas
- Likely significant impacts for Florida and the Southeast U.S.
- Major to catastrophic damage possible if Dorian makes landfall in US
- Not the best track to send great surf to the East Coast – at least right now
The So-So
- Intensity and slower forward motion will lead to more surf for many locations
- Increase in surf likely further north later this week
- Potential for Dorian to stay offshore and recurve, but lower confidence in long term specifics
The Good
- Not much if major hurricane makes landfall in Florida or along the SE US coast
- Forecast tracks suggesting core of Dorian may stay offshore, but landfall still certainly possible
- End of the day, some places are likely to turn on, especially South Florida
It is worth noting that local winds and conditions for many sections along the East Coast are looking dicey at best in the short term but many spots will improve once Dorian is on the move — keep an eye on the premium forecast analysis and colored boxes to see if there will be any windows of surf for your area.
PLEASE NOTE: We will be updating this blog as Surfline provides updates throughout the next few days
